SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by late afternoon. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina... Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the expected linear storm modes. ...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south, stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor of higher tornado potential could exist. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025
