SPC Apr 7, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH
FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across
parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard.

...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the
Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some
intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from
the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface,
a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the
jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North
Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the
morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the
surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into
Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by
late afternoon.

...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina...
Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the
Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front
will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level
jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible
that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist
when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds
will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating
ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may
help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold
front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly
linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse
rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the
expected linear storm modes.

...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia...
Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south,
stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater
potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the
track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in
northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited
destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind
damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be
stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near
the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor
of higher tornado potential could exist.

..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025

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