SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Southern Florida and the Keys... Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough, which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys. However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms offshore. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025
