SPC Apr 7, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida
and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours.

...Synopsis...
A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf
during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the
overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move
southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther
west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the
northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. 

...Southern Florida and the Keys...
Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air
mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern
Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak
instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm
intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective
shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough,
which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of
locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys.
However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave
over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms
offshore. 

...Northern High Plains...
Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse
rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear
increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the
severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany
convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through
the afternoon.

..Weinman.. 04/07/2025

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