SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025