SPC Apr 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.

Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.

Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing
small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 04/07/2025

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