SPC Apr 7, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle
Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though severe storms
are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Wednesday, an upper trough will dive southeastward from the
northern Plains into the mid MS/OH Valleys, as an upper high builds
over the West. High pressure will exist behind an exiting
northeastern trough, and ahead of the Plains trough. As such, this
system will interact with very limited moisture and instability.

A plume of low-level lapse rates/heating will develop late in the
day from KS into MO, toward an area of low pressure. This low will
travel east toward IN by 12Z Thursday, with a strong cold front
extending south into LA and MS by that time.

Though only weakly unstable, thunderstorms are expected over parts
of the mid MS Valley to the lower OH Valley. Forecast soundings
depict a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE, with relatively dry sub-cloud
layers and strong shear. While strong gusts cannot be ruled out with
some of the convection, the overall threat appears low.

..Jewell.. 04/07/2025

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