Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia to the eastern Carolinas. ...North FL to eastern NC the remainder of the afternoon... The earlier supercell structures have largely weakened across north FL/southeast GA, though newer bowing segments have formed and are moving across eastern NC with recent severe gusts of 60-64 mph. Forcing for ascent is modest well downstream of a positive-tilt midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley, and the ongoing convection is ahead of the surface cold front. Sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates will help maintain the ongoing storms for the remainder of the afternoon from north FL to eastern NC. Damaging gusts (60-70 mph) will be the main threat with bowing segments with more north-south oriented segments in the primarily unidirectional wind profiles, though a couple of tornadoes remain possible before the severe threat diminishes this evening. ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist.
No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 16 10:53:01 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 16 10:53:01 UTC 2025.
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