SPC MD 432

MD 0432 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FL PNHDL…SERN AL…SWRN GA

Mesoscale Discussion 0432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Areas affected...parts of the FL PNHDL...sern AL...swrn GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070713Z - 070945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for briefly intensifying storms posing the
risk for a tornado or locally strong surface gusts likely will
continue into the 3-5 AM CDT time frame.  The risk still appears low
and isolated enough that a severe weather watch is not necessary,
but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...There has been little change during the past few hours,
despite the continuing presence of capping layers aloft, convection
persists along a slow moving front and a pre-frontal wind confluence
zone slowly shifting eastward across southeastern Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle.  There remain continuing attempts at more
discrete deep convective development ahead of the low-level
confluence zone, which currently appears to narrowly precede the
surface front across areas near/west of Fort Walton Beach, before
intersection the front (or conglomerate outflow) near/northeast of
Crestview.

Embedded within a narrow pre-frontal plume of seasonably moist
boundary-layer air (including surface dew points around 70 F, and
characterized by CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg), and strong shear
(including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath
30-40 kt southerly flow around 850 mb), weak rotation remains
evident within cells along and ahead of the confluent zone.  It
appears that this may be coinciding with a weak frontal wave
developing inland, northeastward across southeastern Alabama, during
the next few hours.  And potential for one or two of these vortices
to briefly intensify to tornadic strength probably will continue
across the Panama City FL and Dothan AL into Albany GA vicinities
through 09-11Z.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/07/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   29788721 31098612 31318566 31808492 31178478 29918549
            29418643 29788721 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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