SPC MD 438

MD 0438 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA


Mesoscale Discussion 0438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Areas affected...Central/southeast Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072047Z - 072145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in convection may be sustained along the
deeper wind shift/cold front, but severe storms appear unlikely.

DISCUSSION...West of the pre-frontal convection, a recent increase
in updraft depth/intensity has occurred across central GA.  This
deepening convection appears to be along the deeper wind shift, with
a band of ascent impinging on residual moisture in the wake of
earlier convection.  However, the prior convection cooled surface
temperatures, lapse rates are poor, and vertical shear has
weakened/become more unidirectional with time, and shear vectors are
primarily parallel to the line orientation.  Thus, the storms are
expected to remain largely sub-severe, and an additional watch or
watch extension appears unnecessary.

..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/07/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   31538273 31138320 31348357 32498291 33268242 33388180
            31928223 31538273 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

StormPrep