MD 0438 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Areas affected...Central/southeast Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 072047Z - 072145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Some increase in convection may be sustained along the
deeper wind shift/cold front, but severe storms appear unlikely.
DISCUSSION...West of the pre-frontal convection, a recent increase
in updraft depth/intensity has occurred across central GA. This
deepening convection appears to be along the deeper wind shift, with
a band of ascent impinging on residual moisture in the wake of
earlier convection. However, the prior convection cooled surface
temperatures, lapse rates are poor, and vertical shear has
weakened/become more unidirectional with time, and shear vectors are
primarily parallel to the line orientation. Thus, the storms are
expected to remain largely sub-severe, and an additional watch or
watch extension appears unnecessary.
..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31538273 31138320 31348357 32498291 33268242 33388180
31928223 31538273
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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