SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys tonight into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt trough in the western Gulf will slide eastward through the day. This trough will eventually reach the Florida Peninsula late tonight into Wednesday morning. In the West, an upper ridge will build with the strongest flow aloft situated over the Northwest into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak cold front across South Florida will be a focus for convection. ...South Florida/Keys... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early this morning in central/South Florida. This activity and associated cloud cover should limit/slow destabilization along the weakly convergent front. Where greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two would be possible. Given weak low-level lapse rates and wind fields, gusty winds would be the likely hazards from this activity. Mid-level lapse rates will also be poor and large hail does not appear likely. Convection during the afternoon will likely struggle to organize as effective shear will be 25 kts or less. By late afternoon into the evening, stronger flow aloft will reach the Keys/far South Florida. By this time, however, buoyancy will be weakening and storms are not likely to be surface based. ...Southeast Montana into the Black Hills... Despite limited moisture, thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of Montana is possible with embedded shortwave perturbations passing through the region. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and strong shear may promote a few stronger storms capable of small hail and strong outflow winds during the afternoon and early evening. Weak buoyancy will limit storm intensity. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/08/2025