SPC Apr 8, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys tonight into Wednesday morning, and from southeast Montana to
the Black Hills.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt trough in the western Gulf will slide eastward
through the day. This trough will eventually reach the Florida
Peninsula late tonight into Wednesday morning. In the West, an upper
ridge will build with the strongest flow aloft situated over the
Northwest into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the
surface, a weak cold front across South Florida will be a focus for
convection.

...South Florida/Keys...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early this
morning in central/South Florida. This activity and associated cloud
cover should limit/slow destabilization along the weakly convergent
front. Where greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two
would be possible. Given weak low-level lapse rates and wind fields,
gusty winds would be the likely hazards from this activity.
Mid-level lapse rates will also be poor and large hail does not
appear likely. Convection during the afternoon will likely struggle
to organize as effective shear will be 25 kts or less. By late
afternoon into the evening, stronger flow aloft will reach the
Keys/far South Florida. By this time, however, buoyancy will be
weakening and storms are not likely to be surface based.

...Southeast Montana into the Black Hills...
Despite limited moisture, thunderstorm development within the higher
terrain of Montana is possible with embedded shortwave perturbations
passing through the region. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
strong shear may promote a few stronger storms capable of small hail
and strong outflow winds during the afternoon and early evening.
Weak buoyancy will limit storm intensity.

..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/08/2025

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