SPC Apr 8, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally
damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted large-scale trough and accompanying midlevel
speed maximum will move southeastward from the Middle/Upper MS
Valley to the southern Appalachians through the period. At the same
time, a weak surface low will drift east-southeastward from the
Midwest into the central Appalachians, while a related cold front
overspreads the TN Valley during the afternoon/evening. 

...Tennessee Valley...
Aided by strengthening DCVA in the left-exit region of the midlevel
jet, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along
the cold front as it moves southeastward across the TN Valley during
the afternoon and evening hours. Beneath steepening midlevel lapse
rates, diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf air mass will
yield upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE along the front. Despite the
somewhat marginal buoyancy, 50-60 kt of effective shear
(characterized by a long/straight hodograph) will support a few
organized/rotating storms -- both ahead of and behind the
southward-moving front. Weak/veered low-level flow will generally
limit the strength of forcing along the front, which should favor a
semi-discrete mode and the potential for large hail and locally
damaging gusts.

..Weinman.. 04/08/2025

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