SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible from the Lower Ohio River Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Thursday with very cold mid-level temperatures (-22 to -26C at 500mb) expected from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South. These cold temperatures aloft will result in steep mid-level lapse rates which will support weak to potentially moderate instability by early-afternoon. Unidirectional flow, strengthening with height, will support storm organization including updraft rotation. Overall, the dry airmass, and thus relatively weak instability, should limit a greater threat. However, cold temperatures aloft and forecast soundings showing a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat for stronger supercells will exist along the cold front during peak heating (likely eastern Arkansas to northern Alabama and southern Tennessee) where better moisture/instability should be present. Despite a drier airmass farther north and east, the coldest air aloft will advect over this region and could support a threat as far northeast as far southern Ohio. ..Bentley.. 04/08/2025
