SPC Apr 8, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally
damaging gusts will be possible from the Lower Ohio River Valley to
the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Thursday
with very cold mid-level temperatures (-22 to -26C at 500mb)
expected from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South. These cold
temperatures aloft will result in steep mid-level lapse rates which
will support weak to potentially moderate instability by
early-afternoon. Unidirectional flow, strengthening with height,
will support storm organization including updraft rotation. Overall,
the dry airmass, and thus relatively weak instability, should limit
a greater threat. However, cold temperatures aloft and forecast
soundings showing a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the
potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts. 

The greatest threat for stronger supercells will exist along the
cold front during peak heating (likely eastern Arkansas to northern
Alabama and southern Tennessee) where better moisture/instability
should be present. Despite a drier airmass farther north and east,
the coldest air aloft will advect over this region and could support
a threat as far northeast as far southern Ohio.

..Bentley.. 04/08/2025

Read more