SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black Hills. ...20z Update... No changes in forecast reasoning since the prior Outlook. The cold front will continue to spread south-southeastward across southern Florida, with thunderstorms increasingly relegated to the far southeast part of the Peninsula, Keys, and Florida Straits. ..Guyer.. 04/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...South Florida/Keys... A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will approach the region later tonight. But with the front having progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe risk) over land should remain very low. ...North-central High Plains.. A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur.