SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID/DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A positively tiled large-scale trough will advance southeastward from the Upper MS Valley/Midwest to the OH/TN Valleys through the period. Within the base of the trough, a 70-80-kt west-northwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the Mid/Deep South and TN Valley. In response, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. ...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley... Along/ahead of the front, ample diurnal heating of the partially modified Gulf moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (upwards of 8 C/km) will contribute to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. As ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet impinges on the destabilizing air mass along/ahead of the front, a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Mid-South during the afternoon. 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/straight hodograph) oriented perpendicular to the front will favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells initially. The primary concern with these storms will be large hail to around 1.5-1.75 inches. As storms track/develop southeastward amid steep boundary-layer lapse rates, strengthening/expanding cold pools and a more boundary-parallel component of the midlevel flow will promote upscale growth into clusters and eventually a broken line into the evening hours. As a result, damaging wind gusts will become an increasing concern, before low-level static stability increases (owing to nocturnal cooling) with southeastward extent. ..Weinman.. 04/09/2025