SPC Apr 9, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID/DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging
gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and
Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
A positively tiled large-scale trough will advance southeastward
from the Upper MS Valley/Midwest to the OH/TN Valleys through the
period. Within the base of the trough, a 70-80-kt west-northwesterly
midlevel jet will overspread the Mid/Deep South and TN Valley. In
response, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward
along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front.

...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley...
Along/ahead of the front, ample diurnal heating of the partially
modified Gulf moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (upwards
of 8 C/km) will contribute to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. As ascent in
the left-exit region of the midlevel jet impinges on the
destabilizing air mass along/ahead of the front, a band of scattered
thunderstorms will develop across the Mid-South during the
afternoon. 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a
long/straight hodograph) oriented perpendicular to the front will
favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells initially. The primary
concern with these storms will be large hail to around 1.5-1.75
inches. 

As storms track/develop southeastward amid steep boundary-layer
lapse rates, strengthening/expanding cold pools and a more
boundary-parallel component of the midlevel flow will promote
upscale growth into clusters and eventually a broken line into the
evening hours. As a result, damaging wind gusts will become an
increasing concern, before low-level static stability increases
(owing to nocturnal cooling) with southeastward extent.

..Weinman.. 04/09/2025

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