SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of eastern North Carolina on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern North Carolina... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward across the Appalachians, the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved midlevel jet streak will overspread the coastal Mid-Atlantic states on Friday morning/afternoon. At the same time, a related surface low, initially over western/central NC, will move slowly eastward through the day. Showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the surface low on Friday morning, and related cloud coverage will tend to limit diurnal heating into the afternoon. However, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints beneath cold midlevel temperatures/modest midlevel lapse rates will contribute to sufficient surface-based instability for a couple strong to severe storms through the afternoon -- given around 40 kt of effective shear. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible with any organized thunderstorms that develop. The spatial extent of the severe risk will be modulated by the timing of the midlevel jet and placement of the surface low, and if the faster solutions (such as the NAM) play out, the severe risk will be confined to the immediate coastal areas or even offshore. ..Weinman.. 04/09/2025