SPC Apr 9, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of
eastern North Carolina on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated
severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

...Eastern North Carolina...
Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough moving slowly
eastward across the Appalachians, the left-exit region of a
cyclonically curved midlevel jet streak will overspread the coastal
Mid-Atlantic states on Friday morning/afternoon. At the same time, a
related surface low, initially over western/central NC, will move
slowly eastward through the day. Showers/thunderstorms will likely
be ongoing ahead of the surface low on Friday morning, and related
cloud coverage will tend to limit diurnal heating into the
afternoon. However, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints beneath cold
midlevel temperatures/modest midlevel lapse rates will contribute to
sufficient surface-based instability for a couple strong to severe
storms through the afternoon -- given around 40 kt of effective
shear. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be
possible with any organized thunderstorms that develop. 

The spatial extent of the severe risk will be modulated by the
timing of the midlevel jet and placement of the surface low, and if
the faster solutions (such as the NAM) play out, the severe risk
will be confined to the immediate coastal areas or even offshore.

..Weinman.. 04/09/2025

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