SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across the central Plains will help amplify the trough across the eastern CONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb) will overspread the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. ...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley... Ahead of a southward moving surface front, low-level moistening and substantial diurnal heating will result in moderate instability (1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from Arkansas into Tennessee, with weaker destabilization farther northeast into the Lower Ohio River Valley. A broad region of ascent will develop across the warm sector by early Thursday afternoon within the left exit region of the upper-level jet streak. This should result in scattered thunderstorms from Arkansas/Missouri to Indiana, eastern Kentucky and perhaps southern Ohio. The best overlap between the greatest instability and shear will be from eastern Arkansas eastward to northern Georgia where the slight risk is present. Long/straight hodographs will initially support splitting supercells with a threat for large hail. In addition, these supercells will have some wind threat given the steep lapse rates and well-mixed boundary layer. This thermodynamic profile will support eventual upscale growth into one or more line segments with a primary damaging wind threat expected by late afternoon and into the evening. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025