SPC Apr 9, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging
gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and
Tennessee Valley on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across the
central Plains will help amplify the trough across the eastern
CONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb) will
overspread the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. At
the surface, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward
along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front.

...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley...
Ahead of a southward moving surface front, low-level moistening and
substantial diurnal heating will result in moderate instability
(1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from Arkansas into Tennessee, with weaker
destabilization farther northeast into the Lower Ohio River Valley.
A broad region of ascent will develop across the warm sector by
early Thursday afternoon within the left exit region of the
upper-level jet streak. This should result in scattered
thunderstorms from Arkansas/Missouri to Indiana, eastern Kentucky
and perhaps southern Ohio. The best overlap between the greatest
instability and shear will be from eastern Arkansas eastward to
northern Georgia where the slight risk is present. 

Long/straight hodographs will initially support splitting supercells
with a threat for large hail. In addition, these supercells will
have some wind threat given the steep lapse rates and well-mixed
boundary layer. This thermodynamic profile will support eventual
upscale growth into one or more line segments with a primary
damaging wind threat expected by late afternoon and into the
evening.

..Bentley.. 04/09/2025

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