SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the trough on Friday morning resulting in a deepening, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Appalachians. As a result, a surface low will deepen across the central Carolinas Friday morning. As this occurs, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints over the Gulf Stream will advect inland across eastern South Carolina and North Carolina and perhaps far as southeast Virginia. Cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid in destabilization Friday morning. If some surface heating can occur and allow for a zone of greater instability (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) to develop, a slight risk may be needed. The most favorable zone at this time extends from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina where cloudcover/stabilizing rainfall is less likely. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and location of the mid-level jet max and as a result, the location of the surface low. These differences are only 50 to 100 miles, but given how close the threat is to the coast, this could have a significant impact on inland destabilization and thus the potential for a corridor of greater severe risk. This, combined with cloudcover/ongoing convective concerns mentioned above, preclude higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025
