SPC Apr 9, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA....

...SUMMARY...
A couple strong to severe storms will be possible from the eastern
Carolinas into southeast Virginia on Friday. Primary concerns will
be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the trough on
Friday morning resulting in a deepening, negatively tilted mid-level
shortwave trough across the southern Appalachians. As a result, a
surface low will deepen across the central Carolinas Friday morning.
As this occurs, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints over the Gulf Stream
will advect inland across eastern South Carolina and North Carolina
and perhaps far as southeast Virginia. Cooling temperatures aloft
and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid in destabilization
Friday morning. If some surface heating can occur and allow for a
zone of greater instability (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) to develop, a slight
risk may be needed. The most favorable zone at this time extends
from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina where
cloudcover/stabilizing rainfall is less likely.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and location of
the mid-level jet max and as a result, the location of the surface
low. These differences are only 50 to 100 miles, but given how close
the threat is to the coast, this could have a significant impact on
inland destabilization and thus the potential for a corridor of
greater severe risk. This, combined with cloudcover/ongoing
convective concerns mentioned above, preclude higher probabilities
at this time.

..Bentley.. 04/09/2025

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