Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday, a robust midlevel trough will advance eastward from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. On Day 5/Sunday, a related broad/elongated surface low will move eastward across the northern/central Plains, while a dryline develops farther south over the southern Plains. Isolated strong storms may be possible ahead of the surface low in the Upper MS Valley, though poor boundary-layer moisture will tend to limit the severe risk. Farther south along the dryline, a strong EML and related capping should inhibit thunderstorm development, despite the development of larger buoyancy here. On Day 6/Monday, a cold front will move across the eastern half of the CONUS, in tandem with the eastward-moving trough. Strong midlevel flow and a weakly unstable air mass along the front may support a marginal severe-storm risk from the OH Valley southwestward to the Ozarks. However, considerable differences among the medium-range guidance regarding the quality of boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front casts uncertainty on the overall risk.