SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb speed max is translating across the central Plains toward the Mid South. This will allow an upper trough to deepen east of the MS River, and heights will fall accordingly as seasonally cool mid-tropospheric temperatures settle into this region. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb, -20C isotherm will extend across northern GA/AL/MS by 18z, which results in very steep lapse rates north of the digging jet. Surface reflection to this digging trough is somewhat disjointed and not particularly focused, though a synoptic front should extend across southeast MO-central AR-northeast TX by mid day. Subsequent southeast movement will take this boundary to near the central Gulf Coast by sunrise Friday. Current thinking is strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19-20z across portions of MO/IL along the weakly convergent front. While moisture is quite limited ahead of the front, cool profiles favor the potential for robust convection. This activity will spread southeast toward the northern Gulf States with an attendant threat of hail and wind. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/10/2025
