Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast from late morning through the afternoon Friday. ...Eastern NC vicinity... A leading shortwave impulse rotating through the basal portion of a broader eastern U.S. longwave trough will yield strengthening forcing for ascent during the late morning. Some 00Z HREF members, notably the NSSL and FV3 indicate thunderstorm development increasing early in the day within the low-level warm conveyor ahead of a deepening but weak surface cyclone. Should this occur, it would be ill-timed with respect to peak boundary-layer heating and displaced east of the moderate mid-level lapse rate plume. But it would be coincident with modifying moisture return characterized by mid to upper 50s dew points over eastern NC. Other guidance indicates a separate round of afternoon storm development confined to near the surface cyclone in the eastern Piedmont of NC, while a pronounced mid-level dry slot limits storm development with southward extent into SC/GA. The degree of surface heating along the northwest extent of the weak buoyancy plume is quite uncertain. But mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and moderate deep-layer shear may yield isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts within afternoon storms. ...North FL... Greater boundary-layer heating is anticipated ahead of the trailing portion of the cold front that extends into the northeast Gulf. Consensus of guidance suggests this heating will aid in isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon, south of the mid-level dry slot. While low-level flow will be veered and weak ahead of the front, pronounced deep-layer speed shear is expected amid a 60-70 kt 500-mb jet. This should favor mid-level rotation in a few cells with a threat of isolated large hail and localized damaging winds. This activity should shift off the Atlantic Coast or weaken over land by early evening. ..Grams.. 04/10/2025
No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 16 10:53:01 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 16 10:53:01 UTC 2025.
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