Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough over MT at 12Z Sunday and its major amplification into a broad eastern CONUS/southeast Canadian trough through mid-week. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will improve through D5/Monday. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should reach the OH Valley by Monday afternoon, where guidance has been trending farther south with an intense mid-level jet. Given a prior EML and the deep surface cyclone tracking over Lake Superior to central ON vicinity, convective coverage may be limited along the trailing cold front. Still, consensus of guidance suggests that some fast-moving convection should accompany the portion of the front in the OH Valley vicinity. Robust 700-500 mb wind profiles should offer at least a threat for damaging winds. Depending upon timing of frontal passage, a limited-area severe threat may exist on D6/Tuesday along the Southeast Atlantic coast. A compact southern-stream shortwave impulse, approaching the backside of the broad east CONUS trough, indicates low-probability severe potential over the southern Great Plains on D7/Wednesday into the western Gulf Coast vicinity D8/Thursday.