SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southeast Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the eastern U.S. today, as a jet streak rounds the base of the system. At the surface, a low will gradually deepen across eastern North Carolina from morning into the afternoon. A somewhat moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 50s F, will advect northward into eastern North Carolina during the day. Aloft, the exit region of a mid-level jet will overspread eastern North Carolina, where large-scale ascent will likely support convective development this morning. From this convection, an outflow boundary is expected to confine the area of destabilization to the immediate coast of North Carolina southwest of Cape Hatteras. Near Morehead City, the RAP forecast sounding at 20Z has MLCAPE near 650 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 55 knots, and a 0-3 km lapse rate near 7.5 C/km. This environment would be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The primary threat would be for marginally severe gusts, but hail would also be possible. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker to the west in the Appalachian foothills, a marginal severe threat could occur in areas that destabilize the most. Further south-southwest into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, a cold front is forecast to move slowly southward. If enough surface heating takes place near the front, cells that form along or near the boundary could obtain a marginal wind-damage or hail threat. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 04/11/2025
