SPC Apr 11, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT/WESTERN SD...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts to 65 mph are possible from the Big Horns to
the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday.

...Big Horns to the Black Hills...
A shortwave trough over WA/southern BC at 12Z Saturday will progress
across the northern Rockies and MT. Mid-level height falls will
overspread the northern High Plains during peak diurnal heating.
Despite only scant buoyancy, the strengthening large-scale ascent
will support scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. With a belt
of strong mid-level west-southwesterlies, a couple low-topped,
high-based supercells are possible. Deeply mixed thermodynamic
profiles to the east-southeast of the Big Horns should foster a
threat for strong to localized 50-55 kt gusts before convection
wanes after sunset.

...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest...
As the low-level jet strengthens across the southern to central
Great Plains Saturday night, sufficient ascent may support isolated
thunderstorms overnight. But with poor-quality moisture return
relative to the stout EML, it is uncertain if/where convection will
be sustained. Uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated and with
the expectation of weak buoyancy at most, severe hail potential
appears limited.

..Grams.. 04/11/2025

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