SPC Apr 11, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough over the northern High Plains on Sunday morning
is expected to amplify as it moves east into the northern Upper
Midwest. This will maintain a deep surface cyclone from the central
Great Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. Guidance has above-average
spread across latest runs and poor run-to-run continuity on
placement of the cyclone Sunday afternoon. This will be crucial to
identifying a mesoscale corridor of surface-based severe threat,
given initially poor quality boundary-layer moisture relative to a
pronounced EML. The slower guidance with more northern
destabilization suggests that low-end severe potential is plausible
across a portion of the Upper MS Valley. Otherwise, rounds of
elevated convection are anticipated through the period within a
broad but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime.
Buoyancy should remain weak and be a limiting factor for large hail.

...CO/KS...
Atop an intensifying surface ridge nosing down the High Plains, a
favorably diffluent upper-level flow regime will become prevalent by
late afternoon Sunday and persist into Sunday night. This should
support a corridor of convection from CO into KS, that becomes
increasingly elevated given the undercutting surface front. Guidance
has above-average spread on the latitudinal extent of where
convection should form, yielding a broad low-probability thunder
area in this forecast.

..Grams.. 04/11/2025

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