SPC Apr 11, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WYOMING
AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black
Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday.

...Southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming to the Black Hills...
A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest/southern
British Columbia will advance east through the day Saturday. Height
falls across northern Wyoming and southeast Montana will lead to
strengthening ascent by late afternoon. Strong heating, featuring
temperatures in the low 70s, will support sufficient instability for
scattered thunderstorm activity. The deeply-mixed thermodynamic
profile will support the potential for some severe wind gusts from
this activity. This threat should quickly wane after sunset as the
boundary layer cools. 

...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest...
A synoptically strong and nocturnally enhanced low-level jet will
strengthen Saturday night across the central Plains. This will
result in strengthening isentropic ascent in addition to height
falls ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. Despite favorable
synoptic scale lift, most forecast soundings show limited moisture
and a lack of elevated instability. Some guidance has higher quality
moisture and develops isolated thunderstorms, but even if storms
develop, instability will likely be too weak to support more than
small hail.

..Bentley.. 04/11/2025

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