SPC Apr 11, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes...
A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains will amplify
as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. At the surface, an
area of low pressure will move generally from the central Plains
into the northern Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this
surface low south and then southwest to the central Plains. Ahead of
this front, upper 50s to perhaps low 60s dewpoints are forecast
which should be result in weak surface based instability Sunday
afternoon. Guidance varies on the position of the surface low and
destabilization ahead of the front. Long/straight hodographs within
the cloud bearing layer should support some storm organization and
the potential for some strong to locally severe storms. However,
strong capping is forecast ahead of the front with thunderstorm
potential mostly confined near the surface low. Destabilization
should also be more limited farther north. Therefore, a narrow
corridor of an uncapped warm sector with sufficient destabilization
and shear for an isolated severe weather threat may exist, but is
unclear if/where this may occur at this time. 

  ...CO/KS...
A few thunderstorms are possible along and north of a cold front
across eastern Colorado and into western Kansas as a shortwave
trough transits the central Rockies. Moisture/instability is
expected to be limited which should keep any thunderstorm potential
isolated.

..Bentley.. 04/11/2025

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