Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday... Further amplification of a broadening mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone is expected across the Upper Great Lakes to the southern ON/QC border area. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will continue to improve beneath a lobe of the southern Great Plains EML. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should overspread the OH Valley by Monday afternoon. This portion of the front will coincide with robust 700-500 mb southwesterlies, yielding potential for fast-moving convection. Guidance consensus suggests this will remain the favored corridor for at least a damaging wind threat. ...D7/Thursday... Guidance has trended towards greater amplification of a Prairie Provinces to north-central CONUS upper trough, although run-to-run continuity is quite poor. This would be accompanied by a cold front sweeping southeast into the South-Central States. With potentially greater low-level moisture relative to the D3-4 system, some severe potential may become evident once predictability improves.
