SPC MD 446

MD 0446 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA

Mesoscale Discussion 0446
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Areas affected...northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 112051Z - 112315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Several storms may produce small hail and locally gusty
winds through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have risen into the upper 70s to
near 80 F this afternoon, as temperatures aloft continue to cool. A
very steep lapse rate environment has developed with 500 mb
temperature to -20 C into parts of the FL Panhandle and northern FL.


A few thunderstorms have already formed along the surface trough
extending from the Panhandle into extreme southeast GA, with
indications of small/non-severe hail. Moisture is the limiting
factor to storm severity today, with low dewpoints spreading
southward. Even so, convective coverage may continue to increase
over the next couple hours as lapse rates are maximized. Although
low PWAT overall, the deepened boundary layer along with low
freezing levels and lengthy hodographs will work together to produce
primarily non-severe hail. Boundary layer winds remain relatively
weak, therefore any strong to potentially damaging gust would likely
be localized (but possibly aided by cold hail-laden outflow).

..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/11/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30028555 30338467 30628282 31068144 30828138 30158126
            29728107 28948262 29128307 29598353 29928389 29898419
            29768449 29568500 29628522 29768546 30028555 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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