SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, a few severe, are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen as it moves eastward across the Great Lakes on Monday, with a leading speed max moving across the OH Valley during the day and a secondary stronger wave arriving overnight. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from Lake Superior into southwest Quebec, with a cold front extending southwestward across OH and into the OH Valley during the day. Just off the surface, 850 mb winds will be veered to westerly, with speeds increasing to around 40 kt with the cold front passage. High pressure will maintain dry conditions over much of the Southeast, but a narrow plume of mid 50s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front. Midlevel moistening with the lead wave will shift east from MO across IL, IN, OH and northern KY during the day. ...Northern KY into OH, WV, PA, MD... Increasing midlevel moisture, as well as low-level moisture advection will lead to gradual destabilization, but also perhaps reduced daytime heating ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings from several models indicate relatively poor lapse rates below 700 mb with a relative warm nose at that level. Midlevel cooling will still result in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, likely elevated instability over northern areas. That said, increasing mean boundary-layer wind speeds near the front and potential for pockets of stronger instability/heating could still yield strong to severe gusts, and, marginal hail as hodographs will be long. ..Jewell.. 04/12/2025
