SPC Apr 12, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND
WEST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, a few severe, are possible on Monday afternoon and
evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen as it moves eastward across the Great Lakes
on Monday, with a leading speed max moving across the OH Valley
during the day and a secondary stronger wave arriving overnight.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen from Lake Superior into
southwest Quebec, with a cold front extending southwestward across
OH and into the OH Valley during the day. Just off the surface, 850
mb winds will be veered to westerly, with speeds increasing to
around 40 kt with the cold front passage.

High pressure will maintain dry conditions over much of the
Southeast, but a narrow plume of mid 50s F dewpoints will develop
ahead of the cold front. Midlevel moistening with the lead wave will
shift east from MO across IL, IN, OH and northern KY during the day.

...Northern KY into OH, WV, PA, MD...
Increasing midlevel moisture, as well as low-level moisture
advection will lead to gradual destabilization, but also perhaps
reduced daytime heating ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings
from several models indicate relatively poor lapse rates below 700
mb with a relative warm nose at that level. Midlevel cooling will
still result in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, likely elevated instability
over northern areas. That said, increasing mean boundary-layer wind
speeds near the front and potential for pockets of stronger
instability/heating could still yield strong to severe gusts, and,
marginal hail as hodographs will be long.

..Jewell.. 04/12/2025

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