Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... After a relative lull in severe potential mid-week, latest guidance indicates increasing severe possibilities late week. Compared to 24 hours ago, deterministic models have vastly changed to an evolution of a shortwave trough digging south from the Canadian Rockies into the Lower CO Valley during D5-7/Wednesday-Friday. This would support a greater breadth and quality of western Gulf moisture advection across the central states beneath an initially pronounced EML. SPC and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance indicate broadening 5 to mesoscale pockets of 15 percent probabilities during D6-8/Thursday-Saturday. But given the lack of day-to-day continuity and rather large spread across ensemble guidance, consideration of any severe area appears premature this cycle.
