SPC Apr 12, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
After a relative lull in severe potential mid-week, latest guidance
indicates increasing severe possibilities late week. Compared to 24
hours ago, deterministic models have vastly changed to an evolution
of a shortwave trough digging south from the Canadian Rockies into
the Lower CO Valley during D5-7/Wednesday-Friday. This would support
a greater breadth and quality of western Gulf moisture advection
across the central states beneath an initially pronounced EML. SPC
and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance indicate broadening 5 to mesoscale
pockets of 15 percent probabilities during D6-8/Thursday-Saturday.
But given the lack of day-to-day continuity and rather large spread
across ensemble guidance, consideration of any severe area appears
premature this cycle.

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