SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Eastern NC... Timing of surface cold front passage Tuesday late morning to afternoon remains crucial as to whether thunderstorms can form and intensify over land, before becoming entirely confined off the coast. Guidance, except for the UKMET, has generally been trending towards a slightly faster frontal passage over the past couple days. This suggests the window of opportunity for sustained severe development should be rather limited. Conditionally, strong wind profiles support potential for an organized storm or two around early afternoon. For now, have opted to defer on possible level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southwest... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving northeast from the Lower CO Valley, and a separate trough off the CA coast. Meager buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear will minimize severe potential. ..Grams.. 04/13/2025
