SPC Apr 14, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat
will be possible.

...Lower Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
At mid-levels, a positively-tilted trough will move through the
northern Plains as a low moves northeastward into Ontario. Heights
will fall today from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a ridge
moves into the western Atlantic. At the surface, a pre-frontal
trough will develop in the lee of the Appalachians, as a cold front
advances southeastward through the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi
Valleys. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will advect
northeastward into Kentucky, southern Ohio and West Virginia. As
instability increases along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the afternoon from near the front
eastward along the northern edge of the instability gradient.
Multiple relatively small clusters of storms are expected to form
and move eastward into the central Appalachians.

An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will move across the central Plains
today, as the exit region of the jet overspreads the Ohio Valley.
Lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the exit region of
the jet will support strong to severe thunderstorm development this
afternoon. Forecast soundings this afternoon from eastern Kentucky
into West Virginia have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km
shear in the 60 to 65 knot range. This will support a severe threat,
associated with isolated supercells and short bowing line segments.
Large hail will be most likely with supercells. In addition,
low-level flow is forecast to steadily increase in the late
afternoon and early evening near the moist axis. This will create
strong low-level shear favorable for a tornado threat. The tornado
threat is expected to be the greatest from far northeast Kentucky
into parts of West Virginia, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is
forecast to reach the 200 to 350 m2/s2 range. Supercells and short
bowing line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage.
During the early to mid evening, the severe threat is expected to
spread eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where severe gusts and
isolated large hail will also be possible.

..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/14/2025

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