SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...West to Central States... A broad swath of predominately isolated thunder is anticipated starting Wednesday afternoon and persisting into early morning Thursday. A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain West. A southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough should drift towards the southern CA coast. Downstream lee cyclogenesis should occur over the central High Plains by Wednesday night, with modified moisture return from the western Gulf Coast northward. In the West, buoyancy will be scant outside of CA. But the strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of/within the developing longwave trough should support isolated thunderstorms, peaking in the late afternoon. Across the central Great Plains vicinity, surface-based storm development appears unlikely given the initially low-quality moisture return beneath a stout EML. A corridor of elevated thunder may be realized by Wednesday night, as a low-level jet strengthens from west TX to KS. Guidance does differ on amplitude of this strengthening, and has fairly large spread in if/where elevated convection is sustained early morning Thursday. ..Grams.. 04/14/2025