SPC Apr 14, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night.

...West to Central States...
A broad swath of predominately isolated thunder is anticipated
starting Wednesday afternoon and persisting into early morning
Thursday. A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig
southward from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain
West. A southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough should
drift towards the southern CA coast. Downstream lee cyclogenesis
should occur over the central High Plains by Wednesday night, with
modified moisture return from the western Gulf Coast northward.

In the West, buoyancy will be scant outside of CA. But the
strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of/within the developing
longwave trough should support isolated thunderstorms, peaking in
the late afternoon. Across the central Great Plains vicinity,
surface-based storm development appears unlikely given the initially
low-quality moisture return beneath a stout EML. A corridor of
elevated thunder may be realized by Wednesday night, as a low-level
jet strengthens from west TX to KS. Guidance does differ on
amplitude of this strengthening, and has fairly large spread in
if/where elevated convection is sustained early morning Thursday.

..Grams.. 04/14/2025

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