SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe, owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. ...Central Plains... Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025