SPC Apr 14, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Wednesday night.

...Synopsis...
A broad area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
across portions of the West into the northern Rockies and central
Plains. This is in response to forcing for ascent increasing with a
broad area of enhanced mid-level flow rounding the western US
trough. Largely, thunderstorms will be disorganized and sub-severe,
owing to poor moisture and weak shear profiles. 

...Central Plains...
Large scale ascent will lead to potential for initial isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the central
Plains Wednesday afternoon. This will remain sub-severe given
marginal moisture profiles and presence of a strong EML. 

As west to southwesterly mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies, lee
cyclogenesis is expected to occur Wednesday evening. This will
result in mass response with an increase in the southerly low-level
jet across the southern/central Plains by late evening into the
early morning Thursday. Return of more appreciable moisture will
spread into portions of eastern Kansas. Convective potential will be
tempered by a strong EML and better forcing remaining to the north
of this region. However, should elevated thunderstorm development
occur, some conditional risk for large hail would be possible. Given
uncertainty in convective initiation, no areas were included with
this outlook.

..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025

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