SPC Apr 14, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Active severe weather pattern expected late week into the weekend.

...D4/Thursday...
A longwave trough should become clearly anchored over the West and
consist of multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Peak surface
cyclone amplitude is largely progged over western KS on Thursday
afternoon, with a dryline arcing across eastern KS into the southern
Great Plains. Another day of modifying moisture return northward
from the western Gulf should yield at least moderate buoyancy ahead
of the dryline. A strengthening low-level jet should support
thunderstorm development across the Lower MO to Mid-MS Valleys on
Thursday evening. Supercell wind profiles support potentially
scattered severe storms.

...D5/Friday...
A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies appears likely
to become established from the southern High Plains to the Great
Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from James Bay to the Lower
CO Valley. While the deep cyclone over the KS vicinity will weaken,
it should move towards the central Great Lakes. From along/ahead of
its track to the trailing cold front arcing southwestward into west
TX, extensive thunderstorm development is anticipated Friday
afternoon/evening. Given the strong mid-level flow regime, scattered
severe storms are possible across an elongated corridor.

...D6-7/Saturday-Sunday...
Predictability for a 15 percent highlight remains too low during the
weekend, but areas will probably be needed in later outlooks.
Guidance has trended neutral to slightly weaker/more confined
potential on Saturday. Overall signal persists of bimodal primary
threat areas across the Lower Mid-Atlantic States and southern
High/Great Plains. For the former, the degree of instability and
position of a southeast-moving cold front on the periphery of
stronger zonal mid-level flow remain key uncertainty factors. For
the latter, timing of the pivot and eastward ejection of the compact
Lower CO Valley shortwave impulse across the Southwest/southern
Rockies remains crucial. Guidance has shown poor run-to-run
continuity for Sunday, yielding low confidence on spatial details of
the severe threat. Across both regimes and days, NSSL GEFS ML sub-15
percent probabilities appear quite reasonable.

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