MD 0450 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR BLUE RIDGE INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VIRGINIA…WESTERN/CENTRAL MARYLAND…WASHINGTON DC
Mesoscale Discussion 0450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025
Areas affected...Blue Ridge into central/northern
Virginia...western/central Maryland...Washington DC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 142148Z - 142345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds and large hail will persist
into the Blue Ridge and eastward this evening. A watch is likely in
the next hour.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms, including a supercell with a
history of large to very-large hail, continue to move quickly (45-50
kts) eastward late this afternoon. Dewpoints near and ahead of these
storms are in the low 50s F. Models have continued to suggest some
amount of upscale growth is expected with this activity. Even if
this does not occur, these fast moving cells/linear segments will be
capable of swaths of damaging winds and large hail. From the Blue
Ridge eastward, dewpoints have slowly climbed into the low 50s F
over the last couple of hours. Based off of current observations,
dewpoints could increase another 1-2 F prior to storm arrival. There
will be at least a narrow window where storms could remain surface
based in the Blue Ridge vicinity. Farther east dewpoints and
temperatures are lower. With some additional surface cooling
expected, storms will have greater potential to be slightly elevated
with eastward extent. However, forecast soundings show a dry
sub-cloud layer that would support a continued risk of damaging
downburst winds even with elevated storms. A watch will likely be
needed in the next hour.
..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 39347923 39647877 39557757 39057689 38407673 37557679
37447706 37277796 37257910 37497942 39347923
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN