SPC Apr 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IOWA...NORTHERN
MISSOURI...EASTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail,
are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern/central
Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa.

...Synopsis...
Large scale troughing is progged from portions of the Canadian
Prairies into the Intermountain West and Great Basin on Thursday. A
deepening surface low will shift eastward across the northern
central/high Plains, with a dryline extending from southern Nebraska
into central Kansas and Oklahoma. A triple point formed by a
secondary surface low circulation, dryline, and a frontal
boundary/modified outflow in central Nebraska will be the focus of
additional development by the late afternoon/evening across
central/eastern Nebraska.

...Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri...
Elevated thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing at the
beginning of the D3 period across portions of eastern Nebraska into
western Iowa and Missouri. Some instances of severe hail will be
possible with this activity.

Moisture return will be ongoing through much of the day, with upper
50s to 60s dew points from central Nebraska into Iowa, eastern
Kansas, and western Missouri. Additional development is expected
late afternoon into the early evening across the aforementioned
triple point in central Nebraska. Daytime heating and moisture
return will yield MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg amid steep low to
mid-level lapse rates and ample deep layer shear. This environment
will support supercells, some of which may be initially surface
based and capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Further east
across Iowa and northern Missouri, MLCIN will be in place behind
morning convection. Cells may become elevated with eastward
movement, but will still pose potential for large hail and damaging
wind. The Slight was expanded westward into Nebraska to support this
potential. Storms will continue into portions of western Illinois
through the end of the period.

..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/15/2025

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