SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will remain possible into the early evening across parts of the Northeast. ...20Z Northeast... The prior outlooks remains largely unchanged with only minor modifications. Broad-scale ascent beneath the upper low over the Eastern US is supporting scattered, but shallow convection across the Northeast and New England. Low-topped thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts this afternoon. Limited moisture, and resulting buoyancy will continue to be the limiting factor for more sustained/stronger storms. Have trimmed the western extent of the Thunder area over parts of PA/OH. Scattered non-severe storms are also possible over the Four Corners and western US, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out.