SPC Apr 15, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage will remain possible into the early evening
across parts of the Northeast.

...20Z Northeast...
The prior outlooks remains largely unchanged with only minor
modifications. Broad-scale ascent beneath the upper low over the
Eastern US is supporting scattered, but shallow convection across
the Northeast and New England. Low-topped thunderstorms will likely
continue to pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts this
afternoon. Limited moisture, and resulting buoyancy will continue to
be the limiting factor for more sustained/stronger storms. Have
trimmed the western extent of the Thunder area over parts of PA/OH.
Scattered non-severe storms are also possible over the Four Corners
and western US, see the previous discussion for more info.

..Lyons.. 04/15/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/

...Northeast...
Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the
eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot
eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the
left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered,
low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon.
Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal
heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to
steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level
winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective
wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any
small clusters/lines that can evolve.  

...Four Corners into southern Colorado...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture
atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V
profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be
entirely ruled out.

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